FIAF – It’s an October MIRACLE!!!
Unemployment is below 8%!!!!! Yea, Obama’s the GREATEST. He DID IT.
Of course, Republicans are going to try to paint this as bad news. So predictable.
Today’s jobs report is a classic. The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall.
More gloom and doom from the corner:
If you’re looking for a dark lining, there’s this: “The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September.”
And the Zerohedge folks …well, you know how they can be:
We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which “added” 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America’s transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when “restoring” confidence in the economy was all the rage… and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.
They so-very unhelpfully add that the number of un- and underemployed folks went from 25.8 million in August to 26.2 million in September.
Private companies accounted for most of the growth in September payrolls, adding 104,000 jobs.
In the private sector, employment increased in health care as well as transportation and warehousing. Manufacturing employment fell by 16,000.
Governments, meanwhile, added 10,000 positions as the federal and state-level workforces grew.
So far this year, overall job growth has averaged 143,000 a month, compared with 153,000 in 2011.
U-6 remains at 14.7%.
And then, there’s this.
“The unemployment rate and the employment-to-population ratio reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics are based on a survey of households—people “who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities and homes for the aged) and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.”The reported figures are bad enough. The employment/population ratio for black males aged 16-24 was 33 percent in August, vs. 52 percent for white males of the same age group. But the black number is skewed upward by the exclusion of jail and prison inmates.”
Gosh, that’s so all negative. Let’s go see what they’ve got on the Huffington Post. Front page, as of 10:30:
Jeff G. continues to be unhelpful. Quoting ALG:
Today’s unemployment report met the political threshold set by Obama of being below 8 percent.
To reach this threshold, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics found that an astounding 873,000 people found full-time jobs last month. This finding contradicts virtually every other economic indicator including those used by the Federal Reserve to take the immediate and unprecedented step to embark on the Quantitative Easing 3, which entails pumping $40 billion of new dollars into the economy every month for the foreseeable future.
Additional evidence that the data used to determine the unemployment rate is not valid can be found in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on the number of actual jobs created. This report shows only 114,000 jobs created including an increase of 10,000 government workers.
Either the Federal Reserve, which has its fingers on the pulse of every element of the economy, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics manufacturing survey report are grievously wrong or the number used to calculate the unemployment rate are wrong, or worse manipulated. Given that these numbers conveniently meet Obama’s campaign promises one month before the election, the conclusions are obvious.
Anyone who pays any attention at all to politics or economic news knows that these numbers are false. And they’ll be “corrected downward” next month.
The uncomfortable truth now is this: Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney must call this jobs report out for what it is: a lie, and a cynical political lie, at that. They need to take the charts from Pethokoukis and others and figure out a way to distill them into digestible data, craft their own corrective counter-narrative, and beat both Biden and Obama over the head with it. Because the lie works through headlining and soundbites — through the creation of a perception — the response must be rapid, firm, and tinged with the right amount of surprise and disgust.
We can all look around and tell the economy is horrific and that people are struggling. The trick of the left is to convince those so struggling that it is increasingly just them, because the unemployment numbers continue to fall. And if it’s just them, well, then the speeding jobs recovery will likely pass their station soon enough, provided they stay the course and stay patient.
Yes, this. Visigoth.
So, for all you who are of the by any means necessary ilk, in support of Obama’s reelection, I direct this at you, which was quoted, by a friend, on facebook:
“Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; and may posterity forget you were our countrymen” – Samuel Adams
You don’t care about facts, and you don’t care about our country. If you cannot win through honest argument, you will lie.
One last link – Obama Campaign Shifts Into Extreme Attack Mode.
Casting completely aside the Obama 2008 brand of a hopeful unifier, Obama’s operatives Thursday dived straight the jugular, working on multiple fronts to brand Romney a liar. The campaign, Obama aides made clear, would henceforth be conducted exclusively Chicago style.
In a vicious and personal assault rarely conducted at the highest level of U.S. politics, White House senior adviser David Plouffe repeatedly told reporters aboard Air Force One that Romney was “dishonest.” With the president of the United States in a cabin just a few steps away, his top adviser pushed out the new campaign theme that the man who had bested him in the debate Wednesday night is an untrustworthy scoundrel.
op campaign adviser David Axelrod convened a phone call with reporters telling them that the “question” for them “is really one of character and whether or not a candidacy that’s so fundamentally rooted in hiding the truth and the facts from the American people and deception is the basis of trust on which you assign the presidency to a person.”
The irony is thick.